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Commodity Leading Index Monetary China (Oct 2021)

China's financial conditions are loosening in October

This report presents the October 2021 update on the Commodity Leading Index Monetary China (CLIMC, see Appendix for index description).

Decreasing Loosening Our CLIMC shows that financial conditions as of mid-October continued to loosen but at a slower pace. Consumer inflation fall to +0.7% yoy in September, weighed down by weak demand for goods and a fal [...]

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Commodity Markets Outlook - Sep 2021

Global Macro/Metals

The transition from reflation to stagflation poses a dilemma for economic policy makers and has created uncertainty for future commodity consumption. Large monetary and fiscal stimulus have created a strong recovery in markets during the pandemic. The fading speed of these stimulus will largely depend on the inflation news over the next few months and whether the market anticipates low inflation.

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Commodity Leading Index Economic Activity China (Oct 2021)

October 2021 CLIEAC indicates economic contraction in China

This report presents the October 2021 update on the Commodity Leading Index Economic Activity China (CLIEAC, see Appendix for index description).

Contraction As indicated by our CLIEAC, the Chinese economy is starting to contract. Manufacturing conditions are contracting (Caixin/Markit PMI up from 49.2 to 50.0; NBSC PMI down from 50.1 to 49.6), led [...]

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Commodity Leading Index Monetary China (Sep 2021)

China’s financial conditions are loosening in September

This report presents the September 2021 update on the Commodity Leading Index Monetary China (CLIMC, see Appendix for index description).

Increasing Loosening Our CLIMC shows that financial conditions as of mid-September continued to loosen but at a faster pace than in August. Consumer inflation was up 0.8% yoy in August, largely due to falling food prices (e. [...]

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