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Commodity Leading Index Economic Activity China (Jul 2021)

July 2021 CLIEAC indicates economic slowdown in China

This report presents the July 2021 update on the Commodity Leading Index Economic Activity China (CLIEAC, see Appendix for index description).

Slowdown As indicated by our CLIEAC, the Chinese economy went in slowdown mode. Manufacturing conditions worsened, as reflected by the PMI figures (Caixin/Markit PMI up from 52.0 to 51.3; NBSC PMI down from 51.0 [...]

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Commodity Markets Outlook - May 2021

Global Macro/Metals

Transient inflationary pressure, due to the post-covid opening of the economy, does not seem to be impacting the market as central bank rhetoric (at least in the US) is focusing on unemployment. The year-on-year core PCE price index is reading +3% in April, a 29-year high, and is still acting as a tailwind to the gold market (up 7.6% against the USD in May and flat YTD). The latest employment numbers [...]

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Commodity Leading Index Economic Activity China (June 2021)

June 2021 CLIEAC indicates economic expansion in China

This report presents the June 2021 update on the Commodity Leading Index Economic Activity China (CLIEAC, see Appendix for index description).

Expansion As indicated by our CLIEAC, the Chinese economy remained in expansion mode. Manufacturing conditions were stable, as reflected by the PMI figures (Caixin/Markit PMI up from 51.9 to 52.0; NBSC PMI down fr [...]

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Commodity Leading Index Monetary China (June 2021)

China’s financial conditions are loosening in June

This report presents the June 2021 update on the Commodity Leading Index Monetary China (CLIMC, see Appendix for index description).

Increasing Loosening Our CLIMC shows that financial conditions as of mid-June continued to loosen but at a faster pace than in May. Consumer inflation in May rose by 1.3% yoy, as retailers aren’t hiking prices yet due to sluggi [...]

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