Global Macro/Metals
Transient inflationary pressure, due to the post-covid opening of the economy, does not seem to be impacting the market as central bank rhetoric (at least in the US) is focusing on unemployment. The year-on-year core PCE price index is reading +3% in April, a 29-year high, and is still acting as a tailwind to the gold market (up 7.6% against the USD in May and flat YTD). The latest employment numbers [...]
Global Macro/Metals
Green growth seems to be at the center of the post-Covid manufacturing expected recovery. The share of the population having received a first shot of the vaccine stands between 25% and 50% of the population for Europe and US, which has had a direct impact on hospitalisations, fatalities and return to normal. The expected surge in activity has already been well priced in the equity market with the late [...]
China's financial conditions are loosening in April
This report presents the April 2021 update on the Commodity Leading Index Monetary China (CLIMC, see Appendix for index description).Increasing Loosening Our CLIMC shows that financial conditions as of mid-April continued to loosen but at a quicker pace than in March. Consumer inflation in March rose 0.4% yoy, held back by falling food prices, especially p [...]
April 2021 CLIEAC indicates economic expansion in China
Expansion As indicated by our CLIEAC, the Chinese economy remained in expansion mode. Manufacturing conditions were stable, as reflected by the PMI figures (Caixin/Markit PMI down from 50.9 to 50.6; NBSC PMI up from 50.6 to 51.9), although the large manufacturers captured in the NBSC survey resumed production after the Lunar New Year lull. March trade data sa [...]As virus immunity grows globally, the prospect of a strong economic rebound over the next few quarters is fueling optimism in the markets. Yet, natural immunity in South America doesn’t seem to turn out as a good experience with Covid variants increasing the chances of re-infection. Vaccine immunity is catching up thanks to the global daily pace of vaccination that has moved from 6 mio per day at the end of February to 16 mio per day at the end of March. < [...]